Re-assessing the Equity Risk Premium

Estimates of the historical equity risk premium in the UK are in the range 7 per cent to 9 per cent per annum. Until recently, portfolio investors and industrialists have been encouraged to use a premium of this order in making investment decisions. The purpose of this paper is to review the risk premium debate and to re-inforce the case for rejecting historical experience in formulating future investment plans. A simulation of historical investor expectations suggests that a disciplined appraisal would have identified an average risk premium of less than two per cent per annum. A forward-looking assessment of reasonable expectations suggests that a risk premium assumptions of around 2.5 per cent would be realistic at present

Time Variations in Equity Returns

Investors accept that there is uncertainty, or risk, associated with equity investment returns. Consequently, equities are normally priced so that they provide a premium to the returns available on risk-free investments. Equity returns, however, are cyclical. There can be long periods when equity returns greatly exceed risk-free returns; there can be long periods when the premium disappears altogether. This thesis explores the influences and driving forces in equity markets, with a particular emphasis on the UK equity market. Both rational and irrational influences are examined and discussed. A General Literature Review examines the general progression in academic thinking in the area of equity pricing over four decades and takes a close look at the concepts of market efficiency and the challenges mounted by behavioural finance. The “equity risk premium puzzle” is also examined. Chapters 3 to 6 contain empirical studies of the variation in UK equity returns over time from four angles. The chapters look, respectively, at: macro-economic influences on the equity market; the relationship between equity returns and market volatility; the impact of variation in risk-free returns; a full decomposition of both ex-ante and ex-post equity returns. Reassuringly, the results confirm that the UK equity market is driven, in the main, by economic factors. However, the results also indicate that the full set of influences on the equity market is complex. The analyses undertaken suggest that significant swings occur in the risk premium element of expected equity returns. The results also suggest that there are periods when the UK equity market may be in disequilibrium with other financial markets. It is not the contention that many of the puzzles that have confronted equity market researchers over recent decades are now resolved by the analyses undertaken and presented in this thesis. It is to be hoped, however, that a useful platform has been built from which further investigation and analysis can be taken forward. In particular, it is suggested that comprehensive surveys of long-term expectations could lead to a better understanding of equity market mechanisms

Beyond the Crisis: Irish Aid’s Approach to Nutrition in Tanzania during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Malnutrition remains a major public health challenge in Tanzania, driven by complex factors such as water stress, gender inequality, and poor access to services. Irish Aid in Tanzania supports nutrition through a multisectoral approach to address nutrition-sensitive and specific challenges in regions of focus. After the first case of Covid-19 was reported in Tanzania, Irish Aid adapted a two-pronged approach to ensuring continuity of nutrition services before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. Through adapting its existing partnerships and engaging new partnerships, Irish Aid contributed to (1) mitigating the impact of the pandemic in Tanzania, and (2) safeguarding essential services, including nutrition. This article summarises Irish Aid’s approach and provides recommendations for building back better.Irish Ai

The New Insider Dealing Legislation - A Confusing Outcome

This paper assess the impact of new insider dealing legislation on companies, brokers' analysts, professional fund managers and private investors. The revised legislation came into effect in April 1994. Our main conclusions are: the new legislation is open to many interpretations. In our view, the probability of successful conviction is negligible. There is already a need for a review of the implication of the legislation, to include an assessment of whether civil, rather than criminal, prosecution may present a more workable solution the new legislation has succeeded in forcing companies to release new information into the marketplace through formal announcements. While this may have resulted in a fairer environment, it may also have damaged the efficiency of the stock market, in the sense that more knowable information is not reflected in share prices. There have been many instances of sharp falls in share prices in response to official announcements. Solutions will need to be found if stock market credibility is to be upheld

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality

Change in CD3 positive T-cell expression in psoriatic arthritis synovium correlates with change in DAS28 and magnetic resonance imaging synovitis scores following initiation of biologic therapy - a single centre, open-label study

With the development of increasing numbers of potential therapeutic agents in inflammatory disease comes the need for effective biomarkers to help screen for drug efficacy and optimal dosing regimens early in the clinical trial process. This need has been recognized by the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) group, which has established guidelines for biomarker validation. To seek a candidate synovial biomarker of treatment response in psoriatic arthritis (PsA), we determined whether changes in immunohistochemical markers of synovial inflammation correlate with changes in disease activity scores assessing 28 joints (ΔDAS28) or magnetic resonance imaging synovitis scores (ΔMRI) in patients with PsA treated with a biologic agent. Twenty-five consecutive patients with PsA underwent arthroscopic synovial biopsies and MRI scans of an inflamed knee joint at baseline and 12 weeks after starting treatment with either anakinra (first 10 patients) or etanercept (subsequent 15 patients) in two sequential studies of identical design. DAS28 scores were measured at both time points. Immunohistochemical staining for CD3, CD68 and Factor VIII (FVIII) was performed on synovial samples and scored by digital image analysis (DIA). MRI scans performed at baseline and at 12 weeks were scored for synovitis semi-quantitatively. The ΔDAS28 of the European League Against Rheumatism good response definition (>1.2) was chosen to divide patients into responder and non-responder groups. Differences between groups (Mann Whitney U test) and correlations between ΔDAS28 with change in immunohistochemical and MRI synovitis scores (Spearman's rho test) were calculated. Paired synovial samples and MRI scans were available for 21 patients (8 anakinra, 13 etanercept) and 23 patients (8 anakinra, 15 etanercept) respectively. Change in CD3 (ΔCD3) and CD68 expression in the synovial sublining layer (ΔCD68sl) was significantly greater in the disease responders compared to non-responders following treatment (P = 0.005 and 0.013 respectively). ΔCD3, but not ΔCD68 or ΔFVIII, correlated with both ΔDAS28 (r = 0.49, P = 0.025) and ΔMRI (r = 0.58, P = 0.009). The correlation of ΔCD3 with ΔDAS28 and ΔMRI following biologic treatment in this cohort contributes to the validation of ΔCD3 as a synovial biomarker of disease response in PsA, and supports the further evaluation of ΔCD3 for predictive properties of future clinical outcome

SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in Scotland’s wastewater

Nationwide, wastewater-based monitoring was newly established in Scotland to track the levels of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA shed into the sewage network, during the COVID-19 pandemic. We present a curated, reference dataset produced by this national programme, from May 2020 to February 2022. Viral levels were analysed by RT-qPCR assays of the N1 gene, on RNA extracted from wastewater sampled at 162 locations. Locations were sampled up to four times per week, typically once or twice per week, and in response to local needs. We report sampling site locations with geographical coordinates, the total population in the catchment for each site, and the information necessary for data normalisation, such as the incoming wastewater flow values and ammonia concentration, when these were available. The methodology for viral quantification and data analysis is briefly described, with links to detailed protocols online. These wastewater data are contributing to estimates of disease prevalence and the viral reproduction number (R) in Scotland and in the UK

Structural insights in cell-type specific evolution of intra-host diversity by SARS-CoV-2

As the global burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections escalates, so does the evolution of viral variants with increased transmissibility and pathology. In addition to this entrenched diversity, RNA viruses can also display genetic diversity within single infected hosts with co-existing viral variants evolving differently in distinct cell types. The BriSΔ variant, originally identified as a viral subpopulation from SARS-CoV-2 isolate hCoV-19/England/02/2020, comprises in the spike an eight amino-acid deletion encompassing a furin recognition motif and S1/S2 cleavage site. We elucidate the structure, function and molecular dynamics of this spike providing mechanistic insight into how the deletion correlates to viral cell tropism, ACE2 receptor binding and infectivity of this SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our results reveal long-range allosteric communication between functional domains that differ in the wild-type and the deletion variant and support a view of SARS-CoV-2 probing multiple evolutionary trajectories in distinct cell types within the same infected host